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Life Expectancy and the Older Population

Demographic Implications of Recent and Prospective Trends in Old Age Mortality

University of Southern California

In this article recent trends in old-age mortality are first reviewed. Then the effect that these developments have had on mortality projections for both the short-range and long-range future are analyzed. Next the assumptions underlying the most recent official mortality projections are detailed and evaluated. Following this, the implications of the varying mortality projections for the future size and composition of the older population are examined. Finally, the proposition is addressed that projected mortality is approaching or exceeding maximum average human life span.

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