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Research on Aging
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The Number of Sick Persons in a Cohort

Paula Diehr

University of Washington, Seattle

Ann Derleth

University of Washington, Seattle Puget Sound Health Care System, Seattle

Anne B. Newman

University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine

Liming Cai

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Hyattsville, Maryland

Planning for future health needs of older adults requires a better understanding of the trajectories of health and sickness with age. The authors calculated the number of sick persons over time in a "research" cohort of older adults followed for up to 14 years, and also in a synthetic birth cohort. In the research cohort, the authors calculated the actual number of persons in each health state over time, using eight different definitions of "sick." For the birth cohort, the authors estimated the number of sick persons each year after birth. The number of sick persons in the research cohort was approximately constant for 14 years, for all definitions of "sick." The number sick in the birth cohort was approximately constant from ages 55 to 80 and then declined. The relative excess of sick persons in later life is caused by a decline in the number of healthy persons rather than an increase in the number who are sick. The number of sick current Medicare enrollees may be approximately constant for 14 years. These insights may help in planning for the aging population.

Key Words: self-rated health • equilibrium • health state • projection • older adults • Medicare

Research on Aging, Vol. 29, No. 6, 555-575 (2007)
DOI: 10.1177/0164027507305727
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